Visualise investment opportunities in a matter of seconds
ImagineAlpha’s impactful investment process will help you:
- Anticipate monetary policy cycles
- Foresee turning points in the economy 12 to 24 months in advance
- Profit from global market trends daily, weekly, monthly, and more
-
Carlos DAURIGNAC
email: carlos.daurignac@imaginealpha.net
phone: +44 7738 679 520
The three pillars of Alpha
Central Bank Watching
Timing the macro cycle
Global Market Trends
Anticipate, Foresee, Profit
Welcome to ImagineAlpha !
ImagineAlpha’s Global Market Trends for Nov 30th to Dec 15th is published.
We discuss the "big labor market shift" in the US, the Fed pivot and the key technical levels for major assets are all in the report from the EUR/USD to Crude oil to Copper and more...
US monetary policy outlook. Softer landing than expected for core CPI (and supercore) in October.
FED restrictive policy is validation that the "neutral" rate has not changed. Policy is working.
FED MonetaryPolicyReport updated
ECB slides updated
BOE outlook: hiking on Table Mountain?
The consensus forecast for UK inflation validates the Table Mountain scenario.
National Bank of Poland cuts 25bps to 5.75%
Anther 100bps of cuts are priced for the next year. The "neutral" rate in Poland is below 4%.
Banco Central de Chile cuts 100bps to 10.25%
The BCCh has made an important move with consequences for the global cycle and the outlook for copper.
Riksbank raises by 25bps to 3.75%
The Riksbank delivers the expected 25bps and keeps guidance. The SEK continues in downtrend.
Riksbank meeting preview
Will the Riksbank go the Norges way? the ECB way? or any other way? We have an idea. Please reach out for more...
BOE raises 50bps to 5.00% to regain credibility
BOE delivers 50bps in a "surprise" that could be coined "reverse guidance" judging from the Minutes.
US core cpi: core services ex housing go the way wages, sticky above 4%
EU Leading Economic Indicators outlook updated.
Our 24 months ahead model is leaving no room for a near term rebound in the European Union's economy. The lagged effects of the tightening of financial conditions are clustering in the first half of 2024.
German trade & World trade contract
Advanced economies have been leading the stagnation in world trade for the past 2 years. Developing economies trade is flat. Global trade clearly below trend.
ImagineAlpha’s Global Market Trends for Nov 30th to Dec 15th is published.
We discuss the "big labor market shift" in the US, the Fed pivot and the key technical levels for major assets are all in the report from the EUR/USD to Crude oil to Copper and more...
European Commission sentiment survey: weak consumer & industry, resisting services.
Sweden Q3 GDP and the long wait for the first cut by the Sverige Riksbank.
For the fourth time in 30 years the GDP contracted on an annualised basis. Read about ImagineAlpha's proxy neutral rate for Sweden.
Netherlands supply side confidence in contraction for the 4th month.
The track record of the Dutch Producer confidence has been (almost) perfect in calling monetary policy in the Euro Area for 25 years (and more).
The Global Macro mover of 2024: the steepening of the US 2s10s.
The 2s10s steepening will have major repercussions on asset allocations globally in 2024.
US unemployment duration on the rise in 3 key categories. An historical perspective.
From the 5-14week to the 15-26 week and the 27 weeks+, the cohorts have passed their respective alert lines all at once.
Germany Q3 GDP: weakness in times of cycle high real rates.
Following on France Business confidence yesterday, Germany's Q3 GDP is weak, historically associated with peak rate cycles.
Equities Volatility: Outlook for the VIX – Tactical horizon (5/20 Days).
Which trades first, 4,600 or 5,000? ImagineAlpha has the probabilities.
Equities: Outlook for Germany’s DAX March’24 future (GXH4) Tactical horizon.
The early year Tactical outlook is losing momentum. Volatility is on the rise.
Forex: Outlook for the CHF/USD (SFH4 contract).
The Swiss Franc is weakening in concert with the Euro amid a burst of Vix.
Equities: Outlook for Germany’s DAX Tactical & Strategic horizons.
The Strategic horizon has improved. A VAR shock at the Tactical horizon is becoming more likely.
Fixed Income: Outlook for Italy’s BTP in the Tactical horizon (IKH4).
ImagineAlpha takes a look at early 2024 risk appetite through the lenses of Italy's BTPs.
Equities Volatility: Outlook for the VIX (G4/H4) & the SP500 updated.
The risk rally since November has benefitted from benign volatility. What will happen to the VIX?
Equities: Outlook for Apple Inc (AAPL US).
AAPL could be staging a comeback. The updated outlook has a key level to watch.
Equities: Outlook for LVMH (MC FP).
Strategic & Tactical horizons updated offer key level for reversal.
Equities: Outlook for MSCI Europe Small Caps updated.
Tactical horizon (5/20 days) and Strategic horizon (3/12 months) provide great insights for alpha generation.
Fixed Income: Tactical outlook for US futures TU/FV/TY/WN updated.
Disappointing CPI with sticky core and supercore pointing to wages effect. Bonds outlook into Jan FOMC updated.
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Start a conversation with
Carlos Daurignac
Start a conversation with
Carlos Daurignac
Carlos Daurignac has created ImagineAlpha’s innovative process to help traders,
hedgers and investors identify signals and build alpha generating strategies
as well as harnessing key aspects of risk management on global markets.
Carlos offers easy to use visual-based output for his proprietary models
enabling fast and efficient interpretation of trends in global markets and
of macro-economic fundamentals.
For more than 25 years, he has brought profitable solutions to numerous
trading/investing environments, among which reputable hedge funds
with more than $30 bn of AUM at the time.
email: carlos.daurignac@imaginealpha.net
phone: +44 7738 679 520
