Because time is of the essence...
Carlos Daurignac has demonstrated his expertise at making accurate macro
calls over the past 20 years in numerous trading/investing environments.
Consequently, he created Imaginealpha to bring “timing solutions” to a larger
audience of traders, portfolio managers, hedgers, investors and policymakers.
The three pillars of his research process are the timing of monetary policy, the timing
of the macroeconomic cycle and the timing of global market trends.
An innovative visual based output of his proprietary models allows for fast
and efficient interpretation of trends in global markets.
Recent examples of his “three pillar” approach:
- In Q4 2021 he foresaw the sharp rise of US official interest rates to the “neutral rate” and into restrictive territory with negative implications for global PMIs, risk-assets and earnings which were expected to reach a low point one year later (end of 2022) as happened.
- In Q1 2020, as the world was entering into lockdown, Imaginealpha’s “three pillars” correctly predicted a V shaped recovery in global PMIs and risk assets. They foresaw that by the summer of 2021 the “macro narrative” would have turned exuberant as it eventually happened, compounded by the arrival of mRNA vaccines in the fall that year.
- In H1 2019 Imaginealpha’s second pillar, Cyclemetrics, correctly foresaw 12 months in advance the severe deterioration of liquidity conditions that would grip parts of the repo market in Q3/Q4 2019 prompting the FED to cut interest rates amid plunging PMIs.
Another great example of his ability to predict major turning points 12 to 24 months in advance was in display between 2006 and 2008 when Carlos held the view that a crisis was about to engulf most of western financial markets because of the tightening of financial conditions coupled with an ongoing oil shock. He urged taking aggressive hedging strategies in early summer ’08. He shared these views widely including whilst attending the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2007.
Such skill has also been a feature of the early part of his career when Carlos actively helped clients navigate the rough waters of the Emerging Market crises of 1997-1999 and the convergence process at the origin of the Euro.
Independent, fact based and quantitative, Imaginealpha brings a solid contribution to our clients’ analytical and investment processes:
- Anticipate the Monetary Policy cycle in more than 10 countries/currencies.
- Foresee turning points in the economy 12 to 24 months in advance alongside an array of statistical series, earnings and PMIs.
- Profit from global market trends thanks to an instantaneous visualization of opportunities for alpha generation in your preferred investment horizon.